Lawler's Rule

Apologies...

2005-08-17T06:21:00.000-07:00

...for the lack of posts, loyal readers. I recently started a new, stealth comedy blog that is the Next Big Thing. Unfortunately, it is anonymous so you'll have to find it on your own. But I'll give you a hint. When you come across a ridiculously hilarious blog, that's it!

I Wish I Could Buy Stock in Ray Lamontagne

2005-07-24T13:46:00.000-07:00

He is going to be a star. His music manages to sound fresh and, at the same time, completely familiar. My friend Will’s first question was “Is he playing covers?” And even though I knew they were originals, I had to briefly reconsider; the songs seem as if stolen from Ben Harper & Bob Dylan’s secret love child.

Get the album here.
Read this fairly bizarre account of how he became a musician.

Update: If you're going to download just one song illegally, download Trouble. If you're going to download just two more songs illegally, download How Come and Shelter.

Notable Quotes

2005-07-17T20:50:00.000-07:00

This quote shoots towards the top of my list:

"To laugh often and much; to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children; to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends; to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others; to leave the world a bit better, whether by a healthy child, a garden, or a redeemed social condition; to know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived. This is to have succeeded."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson

Two more solid quotes:

"Few men have virtue to withstand the highest bidder." -George Washington

"One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors." -Plato

Via WILTW

Tracking Links

2005-06-30T16:34:00.000-07:00

I originally started this blog, in large part, to keep track of links to interesting articles and sites that I found. Now I've realized that del.icio.us is a much easier way to perform the same function. There's now a link in the upper right to my bookmarked pages. It will be much easier to track them in the future since del.icio.us allows you to tag each one with relevant keywords fairly easily. My only complaint is that the site's name -- while cool -- is annoying to type.

Music Industry Stubborness

2005-06-14T13:42:00.000-07:00

[Sony]'s use of the software, which is designed to limit consumers to making no more than three copies of a CD, reflects an effort to alter a format that is two decades old and contains music that can be readily copied and digitally distributed.

It's an open-ended question whether the music industry will ever understand their consumers. Sony has begun producing CDs with more restrictions even as the electronics side of the company continues to introduce music hardware with mangled DRM schemes. They are actively pushing their target customers to both piracy and competitors (what is the iPod to Walkman sales ratio these days?). They need to offer a compelling platform, music at a reasonable price, and then upsell on extras.

Flying Cars; About Time

2005-06-13T10:13:00.000-07:00

I am still bitter over the hundreds of flying car articles that I read in Popular Science when I was in grade school. Those were promised a long time ago and still haven't materialized. So it's pretty cool to see that some guy has developed a combo car-gyroplane that he drives from his house to the airport, flies and lands at another airport, and then drives to work. Seems like we're gradually getting closer.

Innovation in the Wireless Space

2005-06-03T10:40:00.000-07:00

The WSJ's Walt Mossberg claims that in the US wireless market, "the wireless phone carriers have used their ownership of networks to sharply restrict what technologies can actually reach users." Tom Evslin at Fractals of Change agrees and brings up the example of Hong Kong, where mobile phone companies do not have control of which phones and programs can run on their network. [Speaking of which, his posts on telecommunications are phenomenal.]

Their argument that the carriers are harming innovation, however, seems unfair and only true at the margin. The huge leap in innovation occurred when the carriers invested billions of dollars in the infrastructure necessary to create national networks and, again, when they invested billions to upgrade their networks for digital service, data capabilities, etc. Compared to this investment, innovations like the Treo are quite small and incremental.

Letting the carriers exercise ownership (i.e., control) of their networks is just another way of saying that they can seek to maximize profits. It's important that they do so because, in high initial investment, long payoff type industries such as wireless communications, cable, and satellite, companies are not profitable or cash flow positive until the network has been built out and deployed. In order to encourage future investment, development, and innovation in analogous situations, it's paramount that these companies earn a reasonable return on capital.

The Hong Kong market illustrates both the points both Tom and I are trying to make. It's true that, as a result of less carrier control, consumers there have more options when they look for phones, content, and mobile applications. However, it's also true that cutthroat competition prevents the carriers from justifying further investment outside of that required to sustain the current business.

It's not clear to me if Walt and Tom are calling for the carriers to willingly open their networks or if they are implying that regulators should take attention but I think competition will soon solve the issue. Considering that there are 4 large, national wireless carriers competing for customers, they will find it difficult to ignore innovative technologies for any sustained period of time. If customers demand the Treo, they will get it or else they will migrate carriers; the stodgy carrier will have to take notice or Wall Street will punish it for rising customer churn. On the other hand, forcing the carriers to open their networks through regulation will almost certainly lower the long-term returns of the carriers, crimping future investment and innovation.

On a side note, it's ironic to see Steve Jobs deploring the control that carriers exert over their network when he runs an even more closed system (iPod + iTunes) for music!

[Steve Jobs] is wary of producing an Apple cellphone because he would have to offer it through the “four orifices” – the major US cellular carriers – rather than being able to sell it directly to the public. We here in the US would have a far wider choice in wireless phone technology if wireless carriers did not have a veto over what is deployed on their networks.

Teaching Writing in the Times

2005-06-03T08:52:00.000-07:00

Typical, of course, that the Times would publish a lament on education in the form of a Fish editorial espousing an interesting-but-arcane way of teaching writing. Still an interesting article.

The next step (and this one takes weeks) is to explore the devices by which English indicates and distinguishes between the various components of these interactions. If in every sentence someone is doing something to someone or something else, how does English allow you to tell who is the doer and whom (or what) is the doee; and how do you know whether there is one doer or many; and what tells you that the doer is doing what he or she does in this way and at this time rather than another?

Stat Usage

2005-06-03T08:35:00.000-07:00

All I can think of is the public digesting Paul Krugman's argument that we spend more money on health care than countries with socialized medicine, we have the same longevity as those countries, therefore socialized medicine is more cost-effective.

In fact, we spend $2000 more per capita than other countries. Taking David Cutler's value of a life-year as $100,000, the critical value for whether that $2000 is cost-effective is whether it increases our longevity by one week. If you want to try to find that week by controlling for all the other factors that affect longevity (genetics, homicide rates, traffic fatality rates, etc.), go ahead. But I think it's like trying to call balls and strikes from a helicopter.

Quote of the Day

2005-05-23T22:44:00.000-07:00

"I want to see if what I believe in works."
-Rick Santorum

Who Writes This Stuff?

2005-05-21T22:31:00.000-07:00

As seen at the local multiplex:
"The Legendary Filmmaker Brings You His Ultimate Zombie Masterpiece"

The Show Will Start on Time; Will I Be There?

2005-05-04T15:49:00.000-07:00

The Loews theater chain has announced that they will start publishing the actual start time of the featured movie in addition to the start time for trailers and commercials. The increased number and length of pre-feature clutter (albeit frequently entertaining clutter) necessitated this move. If the theaters didn't do it themselves, there was rumbling that Congress might do it for them; after all, such legislation would provide a welcome distraction from the real business of government as the steroids scandal subsides.

Still, I regret this move somewhat. I am late to arrive everywhere, including to the movies. The commercials and trailers provide a welcome buffer for me. I anticipate that I will, now knowing the true start time, miss the opening scenes of more films than I do currently (an already impressive number).

Question of the Day

2005-04-29T15:33:00.000-07:00

Twenty years ago would you rather have been a B-student in Poughkeepsie or a genius in Shanghai? And today?
-Bill Gates in Wired

The Best Way to Conduct Important Business

2005-04-29T10:37:00.000-07:00

Back after some international trips and blogger malfunctions.

The WSJ has a great story about a Japanese businessman using Rocks, Paper, Scissors to determine the outcome of a business deal.

The highest end of the art market is fiendishly competitive, and especially so as the two auctioneers fight over a dwindling supply of classic Impressionist paintings. Each offered lavish proposals. But they were so similar, says the 74-year-old Mr. Hashiyama, that he couldn't pick a winner. He initially asked the two archrivals to decide between themselves who would get the Cezanne. That idea didn't fly. So Mr. Hashiyama informed Christie's and Sotheby's that they would play a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors to break the tie, a method he had used many times in the past to determine important business deals

The employee returned with the ballots. Christie's had picked scissors. Sotheby's picked paper. Per the game's rules, which automatically determine a winner -- paper covers rock, rock smashes scissors, scissors cut paper -- Christie's scissors triumphed over Sotheby's paper.
Christie's declined to say why it ultimately picked scissors. A Sotheby's spokesman said, "Sotheby's never comments on collections it is not offering for sale."

Quote of the Day

2005-04-13T07:12:00.000-07:00

In China, piracy is so entrenched that even the pirates complain about it.

Cool API Tricks

2005-04-10T08:16:00.000-07:00

This guy has combined Craiglist housing listings with Google Maps to show you real estate in your price range on a map. If the Craiglist posting has pictures, those can be viewed on the Google map as well. Having tried to use Craigslist before to try to find an apartment in NYC, this blows my mind.

Quotes of the Day

2005-04-07T12:00:00.000-07:00

We all profess to be in favor of more freedom. Freedom is the Platinum Visa card. We all want one. Responsibility is the credit rating. Not so much enthusiasm for the kind of discipline needed to earn one of those.

link

Many academics share the adolescent fantasy that government would be terrific if only the right leaders were in charge. They think that all of our problems would go away if only "the people" could get their way over the "special interests." Their model of politics is the old Jimmy Stewart movie "Mr. Smith goes to Washington."

A good way to cure the adolescent fantasy is to spend time in government. Up close, it is hard to tell the people from the special interests. The crusaders for more low-income housing turn out to be construction companies. The campaign for energy independence and clean-burning fuel turns out to be a plea for a subsidy to benefit a large ethanol producer. Conversely, those of us arguing against drug price controls do so not because we are industry stooges but because we believe that markets incentives lead to better treatments and cures.

link

Enforcing the HBP Rules

2005-04-05T11:56:00.000-07:00

The batter becomes a runner and is entitled to first base without liability to be put out (provided he advances to and touches first base) when...(b) He is touched by a pitched ball which he is not attempting to hit unless (1) The ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, or (2) The batter makes no attempt to avoid being touched by the ball; If the ball is in the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a strike, whether or not the batter tries to avoid the ball. If the ball is outside the strike zone when it touches the batter, it shall be called a ball if he makes no attempt to avoid being touched.

When is MLB going to start enforcing the rules on hit batters? The rules clearly state that the batter must attempt to get out of the way and that a pitch in the strike zone is a strike, even if it hits the batter. Umpires currently ignore these rules, giving out free bases no matter the circumstances or how egregiously the batter leans into the plate or fails to make any attempt to get out of the way. The Yankees have really perfected the art of creating HBPs. I can't really blame them; if the umpires are going to allow this practice, the Red Sox need to start leaning in and taking some pitches. On the whole, though, it's quite frustrating.

The Long Tail of Complaining (pt 2 in a continuing series)

2005-04-01T06:01:00.000-08:00

Two new sites have been launched to capitalize on the Long Tail of Complaining theory espoused on this site earlier.

Customer Retaliations will be the umbrella site which provides links to all other consumer oriented blogs as well as short descriptions of the relevant company and problem.

Playersonly Is a Terrible Place to Gamble Online is the newest attempt to force changes in customer service. It will describe how Playersonly.com's online casino and sportsbook fails to deliver quality customer service or a good product.

PPR - Pay Per Rap Advertising

2005-03-29T18:24:00.001-08:00

[McDonald's] is willing to pay rappers $1 to $5 each time songs with the plug hit the radio, according to today's Advertising Age. McDonald's hopes to have its signature sandwich in several songs by summer.

I like the ingenuity displayed here; it's a cool idea from an advertising standpoint. If this catches on, I'm sure it will initially run to an extreme with product mentions and placements becoming obvious and annoying. Afterwards, I'm sure artists will figure out interesting ways to get the products involved in their work without being overly commercial. Or I hope they will.

Amazon Raising Prices of Items in My Cart

2005-03-21T21:27:00.000-08:00

Whenever I hear of an interesting book that I think I might like to read, I immediately go to Amazon and add the book to my cart. That way, it's saved for the future and I can also come back to review all my prospective purchases and determine which ones are priorities. Recently, I noticed that the items are frequently increasing in price (I have yet to see one decrease) while in my cart. For instance, the book "The Age of Federalism" has increased from $18.15 to $19.77 (or 9%) since I put it in my cart, which I believe was less than two weeks ago.

Given that this is the 5th or 6th time it's happened recently, and that I never noticed similar frequent price increases before, I'm curious as to how Amazon's pricing strategy is changing. They're already being undercut by a fair margin on a number of products by competitors like Overstock. Anyway, it's a huge deterrent to purchase to return 1-2 weeks later and find that a number of the items I am interested in have become more expensive.

'The Office' Star Working on a New Show

2005-03-21T20:26:00.000-08:00

The NYTimes has a quick profile on Ricky Gervais played David Brent, the boss from the BBC version of The Office.

He's working on a new show that sounds promising: "Extras" follows a group of unfulfilled actors on fictional big-budget films starring the likes of Kate Winslet, Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Stiller, who play variations of themselves à la "Larry Sanders." Mr. Gervais portrays one of the losers, a preening misanthrope with a colossal ego who believes that the world is full of idiots who inexplicably cannot appreciate his genius."

And he's clearly got good taste: "Lately Mr. Gervais has also realized a comic dream: writing an episode of "The Simpsons," which is to be recorded in the next few months. He has also pledged to appear in the next season - if there is one - of his current favorite sitcom, "Arrested Development."

Once Again, It Seems the Best Way to Start a Startup is to Start One

2005-03-17T19:51:00.000-08:00

If there is one message I'd like to get across about startups, that's it. There is no magically difficult step that requires brilliance to solve.

You need three things to create a successful startup: to start with good people, to make something customers actually want, and to spend as little money as possible. Most startups that fail do it because they fail at one of these. A startup that does all three will probably succeed.

In particular, you don't need a brilliant idea to start a startup around.

The author addresses his advice to technical students but most of the advice seems widely applicable. The more I read and hear from those who have successfully started a company, the more it becomes apparent that these people agree on the principles listed above. The hardest part is convincing yourself to make the leap.

The Long Tail of Complaining: Using Search Engines to Exact Revenge

2005-03-15T19:22:00.000-08:00

Until recently, the response set to a bad customer experience was fairly limited because the costs for an individual to retaliate were high. A letter written to corporate headquarters disappears into the ether. A sole proprietor doesn’t care about customer service. A complaint to the manager (in front of other shoppers) is embarrassing. And word of mouth is hard to start; it's inefficient to mention each negative experience to every friend and acquaintance since they may not be potential customers of the service and will quickly tire of your grumblings.

Search engines, however, can change the economics of complaining. Google, Yahoo, and MSN pick up information on all topics and serve them only to those who are interested. Writing a quick online review (on a blog, Yahoo Local, or elsewhere) has a real chance of impacting a person actively searching for information on that topic, someone likely to be in the process of a purchase decision.

This method will work best for smaller businesses and services since the reviews will rank higher on search engines for those businesses referenced online less often. That's fine. Word of mouth reviews form more readily on large entities since more people experience their service. Everyone knows to avoid Sprint wireless service if possible but how would you know to avoid a particular dry cleaner – who has an annoying habit of breaking every button – when in LA on business.

That’s the theory, anyway. In practice, I decided that I would no longer suffer bad service without revenge. I now plan to start a blog that will chronicle any particularly terrible customer service experiences, particularly with small, local, or online businesses, and will include specific business information. I think (and hope) that as the number of posts increases and others link to my site that its page rank on the major search engines will rise. At that point, my revenge will be complete.

Joining me in this venture will be my friend Will who, in a stroke of what is admittedly genius, came up with the same idea. His first venture into the space is a review of Docuharbor: Docuharbor is a Bad Service.

Look for a new consumer report blog coming soon.

For the Record: I Didn't Intend to Topple Carlos Mesa

2005-03-07T21:58:00.000-08:00

I knew that I dominated Bolivia last week but I didn't know I would topple President Carlos Mesa's government. I am pleased though that, in just a few nights, my dancing could inspire so many.

Switching to Firefox

2005-03-07T16:56:00.000-08:00

I have been testing the Firefox browser for almost two months now. I originally planned to use it once or twice a day in order to keep current on its features and so that I could assess its implications for IE, Google, etc. However, since I started testing it I have completely converted. Tabbed browsing is a feature without which I can no longer live. It makes browsing and reading the news much simpler, easier, and more enjoyable by allowing you to load interesting stories and pages seamlessly in the background while you finish reading the current story. You can then proceed to the next, without having to negotiate tens of browser windows. Now, if more sites would support Mozilla/Firefox, I would never need to open IE.

The Man Behind Deadwood

2005-03-07T07:33:00.000-08:00

Perhaps because my success in creative writing was fairly limited in school, I always wonder how authors go about their day. And what about screenwriters; is the medium of the silver screen or the TV inherently less planned? When writing fiction, do they write the same type of outlines that 8th grade english teachers advocate? Or do they just write a stream of conciousness that is, or isn't, edited later?

Salon's interview with David Milch, creator of Deadwood (the 2nd best show on TV after AD), shows that at least some TV writers are putting a lot of thought into their work. Interestingly though, Milch says that despite his copious amounts of research, he doesn't plot out the storylines before writing them. A third way! He used to teach literature at Yale so I'm not sure how representative he is but it's still a fascinating interview.

I had proposed to HBO a series about the city cops in Rome at the time of Nero. What had interested me was the idea of order without law. The Praetorian Guard, who were the emperor's guards, understood how they were to proceed. But for the city cops, who were called the Urban Cohorts, there was no law at all. So they were sort of making themselves up as they went along. I wanted to focus on that idea of how order is generated in the absence of law. They [HBO] were already doing a show about Rome in the time of Caesar, so they asked if I could engage the same themes in a different setting, and that was how I decided to do the western.

No, I don't plan any of the episodes. They just sort of happened. I sit down each morning and the scenes sort of declare themselves. When you do research, you study and study and study. And then, if you're a storyteller, you try to put all of that in your preconscious, then you forget the research.

The Annals of the Moderately Amusing (pt. 1 in a continuing series)

2005-03-05T18:56:00.000-08:00

The fragmentation of media continues: pictures of celebrities blinking.

Vacation

2005-03-05T10:38:00.000-08:00

The lack of recent posts was due to a vacation in Peru and Bolivia. Email me if you want to see more pictures.

Sunset in Copacabana

2005-03-05T10:37:00.001-08:00

On the World's Most Dangerous Road

2005-03-05T10:37:00.000-08:00

Above Macchu Picchu

2005-03-05T10:36:00.000-08:00

Waterfall on the Inca Trail

Interview with the Creator of Arrested Development

2005-02-13T20:58:00.000-08:00

Arrested Development is the best show on TV right now although its ratings haven't measured up to its reviews. I'm doing my part here to spread the word since Fox seems intent on doing everything it can (pre-empting it every other week, switching time slots, etc.) to destroy a budding audience. That's OK though, it's a show that needs to be watched from the beginning anyway because there are a lot of jokes that reference prior episodes. So start with the DVD of Season 1. Plus, that way, I'll know that Fox counted you (if you are in a Nielsen household, contact me, I have questions).
Meanwhile, the Onion AV club is running an solid interview with the creator of AD, Mitchell Hurwitz:

David Cross didn't want to do television. He really avoided it. We were really lucky, because he really responded... to the money we offered. The script factored into it, but, boy, he really perked up when he heard about the money.

I had developed an idea that was fairly similar, and was kind of a rip-off of a J.D. Salinger short story—it took place in New York with this intellectual family. Then The Royal Tenenbaums came out, and I thought, "Well, that's it, I can't do that anymore." About a year later, I got a call from David Nevins, who's president of Imagine Television. I had worked with him on Everything's Relative. He said Ron Howard had this idea to do a single-camera comedy that was as funny as a multi-camera comedy, which sounds sarcastic, actually.

Amazon Prime

2005-02-10T14:19:00.000-08:00

Beware of the new Amazon Prime program; it is addictive. I've already placed 3 orders since I signed up 3 days ago.

I now understand the rational behind the program, which allows unlimited 2-day shipping for you and 4 other friends or family members for $79 a year. I had questioned how it would be profitable for them since it seemed that customers who spend well over $79 a year on shipping would quickly opt for the deal whereas everyone else would pass, resulting in decreased margins. It makes sense that people would buy more if they didn't need to worry about shipping costs (or accumulating enough items to qualify for SuperSaver shipping) but it appears that the elasticity of demand due to shipping is a lot higher than I had thought. At least for me.

Update: Order tally is now 4 in 4 days.

Former Tripod CEO on Business & Luck

2005-02-07T20:14:00.000-08:00

Inc article on former CEO of Tripod. He agreed to a 2yr lockup and his stock went up tenfold during that period. He then sold all his shares once the lockup expired which happened to be in 1999 and near the peak of the Bubble. Wow.

[W]hen smart, inspired people gather around a fundamentally innovative, morally compelling, and philosophically positive company, they work very hard. And when smart, inspired people work very hard, serendipity ensues. Serendipity -- the faculty of making fortuitous discoveries by chance -- causes lots of unexpected things to happen to a company. Some of these unexpected things are good. Some are bad. But because no one planned for the good things to happen, they appear as luck. In other words, the best way to ensure that lucky things happen is to make sure that a lot of things happen. It's really that simple.

VOIP Has Some Cool Features

2005-02-07T20:07:00.000-08:00

After reading this post praising the features of VOIP, I realize that I want it....except I don't currently have a home phone or plan to get one.

Towards a More Flexible Union

2005-01-30T20:12:00.000-08:00

I had not heard of Andy Stern or his union but this NYTimes Magazine profile portrays him as a fascinating guy with meglomaniac tendencies (which are, in the end, a prerequiste for a politician, right?) and some innovative ideas to maintain and grow union membership and power. A few choice quotes:

"Last year, while he campaigned as many as six days a week for Kerry and other Democrats, Stern nevertheless undertook a series of actions that infuriated party leaders. First, with his encouragement, the S.E.I.U.'s locals voted to endorse Howard Dean before the primaries. Then Stern gave more than $500,000 to the Republican Governors Association because, he said, some of the G.O.P.'s gubernatorial candidates had better positions for workers. As if that wasn't provocative enough a signal, Stern chose the moment of the Democratic convention in Boston to remark publicly, in an interview with The Washington Post, that it might be better for the party and the unions if John Kerry lost the election."

Stern's 10-point plan would essentially tear down the industrial-age framework of the House of Labor and rebuild it. The A.F.L.-C.I.O., he says, would consist of 20 large unions, and each union would be devoted to a single sector of the 21st-century economy, like health care or airlines. Ever the apostle of field organizing, Stern wants these restructured unions to put more time and resources into recruiting new members in fast-growing exurban areas -- in the South and the West especially -- where a new generation of workers has never belonged to a union.

Stern's big idea for coping with this new kind of multinational nemesis is to build a federation of unions, similar to the A.F.L.-C.I.O. except that its member unions would come from all over the world. As Stern explained it, a French company might not be so brazen about bullying American workers if it had to worry about a French union protesting back home. The point, he said, is to force companies like Sodexho to adhere to the same business standards in New York and Chicago as it does in Paris, by building a labor alliance that is every bit as global as modern capital.

Generosity as Part of the Business Plan

2005-01-27T11:37:00.000-08:00

The Seattle Times has a great article on Costco and Dick's, a local restaurant chain, that do well in part by treating their employees well. I've always questioned the wisdom of companies that cut benefits and wages to the bare minimum. Treating your employees that way breeds dissatisfaction, disloyalty, and turnover.

I worked for the same local video store throughout high school. There were other jobs I could have taken but my boss paid me relatively well and allowed me to keep a very flexible schedule. As a result, I was loyal. So were at least three or four other employees who, like me, worked odd hours. In exchange for being flexible and paying slightly above-market wages, my boss got a stable workforce that was much friendlier and smarter (one of the other employees was an assistant DA working at night to pay off law school debts and the other worked on the weekends to pay for his college tuition) than what would normally be expected at a local video store.

Doing the Math for 2005

2005-01-24T11:24:00.000-08:00

Upbeat stories about "penny-stock roulette" appear in the Grey Lady.

+

Market valuations near historical highs

+

Interest rates need to go up and the dollar needs to go down

= ?

Ego

2005-01-24T09:32:00.000-08:00

From Baseball Prospectus:
"Coming in for me was totally different than most players.... I think you have to ask Rocket [Roger Clemens], myself, probably Randy [Johnson] and the upper-echelon-type of player, because there's a much grander responsibility that comes along with being who I am, and I understand that completely."
-Alex Rodriguez

Delta's Hidden Agenda

2005-01-06T15:47:00.000-08:00

Delta slashed its fares across the board, ostensibly to compete on price with the low cost carriers. They had to know, however, that all the other legacy carriers would match them. Therefore, I can only guess that their real intended end game is to bankrupt at least one other legacy carrier, most likely US Airways (which had proposed union cuts rejected today). That would make sense and, if enough seat miles were removed from the market, it could improve the currently miserable industry economics. Perhaps they think the US government will stop bailing out airways rather than letting them fail. It's possible. I am a little surprised that Delta is making this move rather than one of the carriers with stronger balance sheets (relatively; none of them are good).
In the meantime, the price cuts should be good for consumers.

Maintaining One's Conviction

2005-01-06T11:19:00.000-08:00

I came across this quote from Admiral Jim Stockdale today (although I cannot remember where). He spent 8 years in a prison camp and is describing why he made it but a lot of optimists -- who often thought they'd be released shortly -- did not.

"You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be."

Different Ways to Deal with Customers

2005-01-06T11:13:00.000-08:00

The Social Customer has a good writeup on Real Networks. He's correct that Real has shown a healthy ignorance of its customers' needs and desires. Getting customers this riled up can't be good for business.

Macromedia provides a good contrast to Real. They saw Real getting killed in the above discussion and used it as an opportunity to ask for feedback on their products and business practices. Smart move.

Schadenfreude

2005-01-05T07:36:00.000-08:00

In an otherwise uninteresting game, I enjoyed Ashlee Simpson's half-time performance. She is an awful singer who cannot stay on key and whose musical career depends heavily on producing, lip syncing technologies, and her sister's good looks. Her appearance last night was a complete debacle that ended with the crowd booing her. Fantastic. Combined with her SNL fiasco, perhaps this might convince her to stop making music.

Gladwell's Personal Tipping Point

2005-01-02T13:24:00.000-08:00

Given the popularity of his first book, high demand for $40k speaking gigs, and a highly anticipated forthcoming book, Malcolm Gladwell has reached a personal tipping point. Good for him. His New Yorker articles are phenomenal and he has a singular ability to combine diciplines (most commonly, economics and psychology) in approachable and engaging prose.

Check out this profile in Fast Company.

The Bizarre Graham Greene

2004-12-26T18:42:00.000-08:00

I'm currently reading the Power and the Glory, by Graham Greene. So far so good. I picked this one up after reading Our Man in Havana which rivals Catch 22 for the title of best surreal spy novel (an admittedly narrow category).

I was reading up on Graham Greene online and came across a great NYTimes review of his biography. What a strange man. Here are some choice quotes.

Much of Volume 1 was given over to [Greene's] pursuit of a suitable wife, and when the young Greene had settled on Vivien Dayrell-Browning he wrote her 2,000 letters before finally persuading her to marry him. But not long after his wedding he resumed frequenting prostitutes.

Aware that he led a hidden life, Greene developed a habit of evasion, an almost pathological inability to come clean. His secretiveness led him at times to keep a parallel diary, in which he might chronicle two versions of his day, one rather sober and preoccupied, the other perhaps detailing a frolic with a prostitute. Betrayal was one of Greene's obsessive subjects.

Finally, this last quote is Greene's and seems to be depressingly accurate.

At the end of what is called 'the sexual life' the only love which has lasted is the love that has accepted everything, every disappointment, every failure and every betrayal, which has accepted even the sad fact that in the end there is no desire so deep as the simple desire for companionship.

Using Hostages to Rob

2004-12-22T08:13:00.000-08:00

$39mm was stolen from Northern Bank in Northern Ireland by a team of organized robbers. They defeated the security on the main vault by taking the families of two (they had to get two because no one person knew all the relevant codes) bank officials hostage and then demanding bank access as ransom.

That's a pretty daring, well-planned robbery.

Single-serving coffee can heats itself

2004-12-21T17:22:00.000-08:00

Wolfgang Puck, a famous chef, is going to help sell a single-serving coffee that heats itself. It will be available at grocery stores for $2.25 per latte. That's cheaper than Starbucks, and more convenient. If it tastes good, it could be a huge seller. I know I often want something better than the normal office coffee but I don't like paying Starbucks prices or making the trip (which is really pathetic since there's a Starbucks in my building).

Smart Government

2004-12-21T11:10:00.000-08:00

Most of the DC Metro's Board members don't ride public transportation. One of them claims that she can't because she has to keep a tight schedule. Nice.

Proof that Targeted Marketing Has Room to Improve

2004-12-17T06:27:00.000-08:00

Email received yesterday from Ticketmaster:

Hello Nicholas,
Welcome to your weekly ticketAlert! We've found popular events in your area that you may be interested in. Below is also a calendar that tells you what's happening now.

Don't miss Yanni!!

Airplane Flight Maps

2004-12-16T19:56:00.000-08:00

Who decides which cities to display on airline flight maps? You know the maps that show your departure city, the little image of a plane, the arrival city, and then all sorts of useless information like the distance remaining in meters. There are always 3-5 other cities shown on the map and I can't understand how they determine which ones make the cut. Usually, the group will be something like: New York, Chicago, Detroit, and Toledo. Why did Toledo make the cut? Shouldn't they at least put one of the other (larger) Ohio cities up there? I don't get it.

When the Politically Correct Turn on Themselves

2004-12-15T11:15:00.000-08:00

Too funny

How to Find Your Optimal Spouse, Mathematically Speaking

2004-12-14T17:12:00.000-08:00

"You have to choose your life mate. The rules we adopt for this model are that you will be presented 100 choices one after another, you may date them, sleep with them, whatever. But, at the end, you must say yea or nay and if you say nay, you will never see them again."
What strategy should you adopt?

You can prove mathematically that the best strategy is to look at (approximately) the first 36.787944117144235 people (rounding it to, say, 37 people) and then you should choose the first person from that point on that is 'better' then the previous 37 people. This increases the odds of your finding the best match from 1% to about 37%- roughly a 37 times improvement.

Or, in another variation of the model ("twelve bonk rule"), there's a result that says that if you simply want to ensure that your choice is better than 90% of the other choices available, simply 'sample' the first 12 possibilities and pick the first person who is better after the first 12. This strategy gives you a 77% possibility of success.

There are glaring flaws with applying this in real life but it's interesting to consider. Read more on Slashdot.

Update: Due to the recent volume of comments that I have received, I want to emphasize that I am not espousing this theory as a relationship management tool. In fact, it's not even specifically a dating formula; it's a generic formula for making an optimal choice when presented with a number of consecutive options. But it is funnier to apply it to dating.

Two solid posts on Social Security

2004-12-14T14:43:00.000-08:00

One

Two

Baby Steps towards Eugenics

2004-12-14T06:53:00.000-08:00

Couples have an increasing amount of control over the number and attributes of their children. Advances in science and technology have created these options which, since the pace of change has been fairly slow, the public has overlooked. Taken cumulatively, these changes are starting to comprise a much larger shift towards allowing parents total control over their offspring's characteristics. Consider that forty years ago, couples had little ability to control the timing or number of children. Now, couples are able to screen for genetic defects (and abort if they choose) and choose the sex of their child. I don't doubt that in a few more years, further choice will be possible but will it be advisable?

Freakishly Cool

2004-12-13T09:27:00.000-08:00

Check out these images.

"This model shows what a man's body would look like if each part grew in proportion to the area of the cortex of the brain concerned with its sensory perception."

Cool Gadgets that Won't Stay on My Ear

2004-12-13T07:05:00.000-08:00

I got a new phone, the Nokia 6230. It has a lot of cool features including an FM radio and an MP3 player. The coolest feature should be Bluetooth which allows for wireless headsets. I bought a headset that is super small, light, and the sound quality is good. Unfortunately, I'm having trouble keeping it on my ear. It's funny that a device with such advanced technology would be limited by simple ergonomic design (as all the current headsets on the market are). It's also funny that I'm complaining about a gadget's ability to stay on my ear.

Note to Self: Short in 3 Years

2004-12-06T20:29:00.000-08:00

Cereality is a restaurant that serves cereal. Sure to be a success before it is a failure.

A Backup Solution for Idiots

2004-11-29T20:28:00.000-08:00

It wasn't too long ago that I backed up all my schoolwork on 3.5" floppy disks. Not the most elegant solution but it worked. Now though, I have - in addition to my Word documents - digital photos, videos, spreadsheets and a couple hundred megabytes worth of email (pretty much every non-junk email that I've received or sent since 1998, actually). That takes up a lot of space and I want to keep a good backup without a hassle.

I'd bet that my situation is pretty common now. That's why I'm convinced that Mirra is a product who's time has come. It's a simple backup solution that sits on your network and constantly backs up all your files with a minimum of effort required. It also has some handy features such as saving multiple versions of documents so you can revert to a prior version and enabling remote internet access to your files.

They're still a little pricey (the 80gb version is $399) but, on the whole, reasonable and I'm sure the price will come down soon.

Nature > Nuture

2004-11-29T07:17:00.000-08:00

This study of adopted children has fascinating results. Apparently, parents transmit income and education characteristics to adopted children much less than to their biological offspring. But smoking and drinking behavior transmits at similar levels. That's fascinating. Perhaps parents, on the margin, should focus more on teaching their kids good behavior rather than on educational issues?

(Check out the income effects graph on MR.)

The Wonders of Technology

2004-11-15T09:14:00.000-08:00

Modern technology allows Walmart to know that, before a hurricane, beer will be the best-selling item and strawberry Poptarts will sell 7x their normal rate.

Social Security Reforms Getting Press

2004-11-12T06:53:00.000-08:00

Laurence J. Kotlikoff, chair of the BU Economics dept, has an article in the Post today outlining a simple (sounding) 3 step plan to revamping the social security system.

Replace the payroll tax with a retail sales tax. This shifts the tax-burden from a wages-only basis to an all-income basis which means it should be less regressive in the long-run.
Phase out current Social Security system. I.e., eliminate it for those not already retired or close to it.
Institute mandatory savings account that are invested in global indices.

It makes a lot of sense which means that it would probably never fly. I'd also be concerned about adding a new tax. The payroll tax would have to be abolished first because I think there would be a real danger that otherwise both would end up sticking.

Edward Prescott, winner of the 2004 Nobel Prize in Economics, also writes on SS reform in the WSJ. He also favors individual accounts. Here are some interesting quotes:

"Regarding labor supply, any system that taxes people when they are young and gives it back when they are old will have a negative impact on labor supply. People will simply work less. Put another way: If people are in control of their own savings, and if their retirement is funded by savings rather than transfers, they will work more. And everyone is better off. These are the type of win-win situations that politicians and policy makers should be falling over themselves to accomplish."
It would be one thing if the government's Social Security system paid a decent return, but as the President's Commission reported, for a single male worker born in 2000 with average earnings, the real annual return on his currently-scheduled contributions to Social Security will be just 0.86%. And for a worker who earns the maximum amount taxed (then $80,400), the real annual return is a negative 0.72%.
"Under a reformed system there will always be some individuals who, owing to disabilities or other reasons that prevent them from working, will not have sufficient savings in their old age. The solution is to include a means-tested supplement to ensure that those citizens receive a required payment -- just like they receive today. "

Lawler's Rule

Apologies...

I Wish I Could Buy Stock in Ray Lamontagne

Notable Quotes

Blogroll Edited

Tracking Links

Music Industry Stubborness

Flying Cars; About Time

Innovation in the Wireless Space

Teaching Writing in the Times

Stat Usage

Quote of the Day

Who Writes This Stuff?

The Show Will Start on Time; Will I Be There?

Question of the Day

The Best Way to Conduct Important Business

Quote of the Day

Cool API Tricks

Quotes of the Day

Enforcing the HBP Rules

The Long Tail of Complaining (pt 2 in a continuing series)

PPR - Pay Per Rap Advertising

Amazon Raising Prices of Items in My Cart

'The Office' Star Working on a New Show

Once Again, It Seems the Best Way to Start a Startup is to Start One

The Long Tail of Complaining: Using Search Engines to Exact Revenge

For the Record: I Didn't Intend to Topple Carlos Mesa

Switching to Firefox

The Man Behind Deadwood

The Annals of the Moderately Amusing (pt. 1 in a continuing series)

Vacation

Interview with the Creator of Arrested Development

Amazon Prime

Former Tripod CEO on Business & Luck

VOIP Has Some Cool Features

Towards a More Flexible Union

Generosity as Part of the Business Plan

Doing the Math for 2005

Ego

Delta's Hidden Agenda

Maintaining One's Conviction

Different Ways to Deal with Customers

Schadenfreude

Gladwell's Personal Tipping Point

The Bizarre Graham Greene

Using Hostages to Rob

Single-serving coffee can heats itself

Smart Government

Proof that Targeted Marketing Has Room to Improve

Airplane Flight Maps

When the Politically Correct Turn on Themselves

How to Find Your Optimal Spouse, Mathematically Speaking

Two solid posts on Social Security

Baby Steps towards Eugenics

Freakishly Cool

Cool Gadgets that Won't Stay on My Ear

Note to Self: Short in 3 Years

A Backup Solution for Idiots

Nature > Nuture

The Wonders of Technology

Social Security Reforms Getting Press